多状态马尔科夫链的主干道出行时间估计Multi-state Markov chain based travel time estimation of main road
邵中华,李竹,崔艳
摘要(Abstract)：
针对目前主干道车辆出行时间估计考虑道路状况随机性,但在时效性和精确性方面有所欠缺,提出一种新的估计方法。以视频检测器为工具,采集车辆在某一区间的行驶时间,计算其平均速度并将该区间的道路划分为三种状态,考虑到估计的时效性和计算的数据量,利用滑动窗口选取一定量的状态数据加入遗传因子构建转移概率矩阵,获知下一时刻所有出现的状态及其对应的概率,而这些状态对应的出行时间的数学期望就是主干道出行时间的估计值。在山西省临汾市的主干道上,应用浮动车法对模型的准确性和时效性进行验证。实验结果表明模型具有较高的估计精度。
关键词(KeyWords)： 城市交通;出行时间;马尔科夫链;主干道;多状态;滑动窗口
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金资助项目(61503231)~~
作者(Author): 邵中华,李竹,崔艳
DOI: 10.16652/j.issn.1004-373x.2018.13.021
参考文献(References)：
- [1]BRUZELIUS N.The value of travel time:theory and measurement[M].US:Taylor&Francis,1979:1-20.
- [2]HESS S,BIERLAIRE M,POLAK J W.Estimation of value of travel-time savings using mixed logit models[J].Transportation research part A:policy and practice,2005,39(2):221-236.
- [3]SKABARDONIS A,GEROLIMINIS N.Real-time estimation of travel times on signalized arterials[R].College Park Maryland,United States,2005:1-21.
- [4]SKABARDONIS A,GEROLIMINIS N.Real-time monitoring and control on signalized arterials[J].Journal of intelligent transportation systems,2008,12(2):64-74.
- [5]GEROLIMINIS N,SKABARDONIS A.Identification and analysis of queue spillovers in city street networks[J].IEEE transactions on intelligent transportation systems,2011,12(4):1107-1115.
- [6]LIU H X,MA W.A virtual vehicle probe model for timedependent travel time estimation on signalized arterials[J].Transportation research part C:emerging technologies,2009,17(1):11-26.
- [7]LIU H X,MA W,WU X,et al.Real-time estimation of arterial travel time under congested conditions[J].Transportmetrica,2012,8(2):87-104.
- [8]张俊婷,周晶,徐红利,等.基于离散时间马尔科夫链的主干道出行时间估计模型[J].系统工程,2014(5):98-104.ZHANG J T,ZHOU J,XU H L,et al.An arterial travel time estimation model based on discrete time Markov chains[J].Systems engineering,2014(5):98-104.
- [9]LAWLOR S,RABBAT M G.Time-varying mixtures of Markov chains:an application to road traffic modeling[J].IEEE transactions on signal processing,2017,65(12):3152-3167.
- [10]FILEV D P,KOLMANOVSKY I.Generalized Markov models for real-time modeling of continuous systems[J].IEEE transactions on fuzzy systems,2014,22(4):983-998.
- [11]KUKHTAREV N V,MARKOV V B,ODULOV S G,et al.Holographic storage in electrooptic crystals:I.steady state[J].Ferroelectrics,1978,22(1):949-960.
- [12]CASTILLO R G,CLEMPNER J B,POZNYAK A S.Solving the multi-traffic signal-control problem for a class of continuous-time Markov games[C]//2015 International Conference on Electrical Engineering,Computing Science and Automatic Control.Mexico City:IEEE,2015:1-5.
- [13]陆建,孙祥龙,戴越.普通公路车速分布特性的回归分析[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2012(2):374-377.LU J,SUN X L,DAI Y.Regression analysis on speed distribution characteristics of ordinary road[J].Journal of Southeast University(natural science edition),2012(2):374-377.
- [14]THIANNIWET T,PHOSAARD S,PATTARAATIKOM W.Classification of road traffic congestion levels from GPS data using a decision tree algorithm and sliding windows[J].Lecture notes in engineering&computer science,2009,2176(1):1-6.